WTO Projects 2.6% Global Trade Growth in 2024

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has projected global merchandise trade volume to grow by 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, following an unexpected decline of -1.2% in 2023.

In its latest report, the WTO highlights improving economic conditions, with inflation expected to ease, resulting in higher real incomes and boosting consumption in advanced economies.

The report points to a recovery in demand for tradable goods in 2024, driven by improved household income prospects. This recovery is expected to support the global consumption of manufactured goods, lifting trade volumes over the next two years.

However, the WTO warns of significant risks to this forecast, primarily due to geopolitical tensions and rising protectionism. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted sea trade routes between Europe and Asia, while tensions in other regions could fragment global trade. The WTO also cited growing protectionist policies as a potential threat to the anticipated trade recovery.

In 2023, real import demand was weak in Europe, North America, and Asia, with exceptions in the Middle East and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), where imports surged. World real GDP growth slowed to 2.7% in 2023 from 3.1% in 2022 but is expected to stabilize in the next two years.

Despite these challenges, global trade has shown resilience, with merchandise trade volume up 6.3% compared to 2019, and commercial services trade rising by 9% in 2023, driven by recovering international travel and a surge in digital services.

News Source: Emirates News Agency