In the first quarter of 2024, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) projected that passenger air traffic levels will be around 2 percent higher than in 2019, with airlines expected to sustain their operating profitability seen in 2023.
Demand this year is forecast to be around 3 percent above 2019 levels and could reach 4 percent if the pace of recovery strengthens in the routes that have not yet reached pre-pandemic levels. This translates to a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of around 0.5 percent over the 2019-2024 period.
“The commitment of ICAO’s Member States to aligning their pandemic responses with the guidance developed by the ICAO Council has been crucial to the recovery of their air services,”
remarked ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano.
“The implementation of ICAO’s post-pandemic guidance is now equally crucial to ensuring the resilience and sustainability of this recovery.”
Global demand in Freight Tonne-Kilometres (FTK) for 2024 is projected to be approximately 2 percent lower than 2019 levels due to anticipated reductions in demand stemming from global economic weakness.
ICAO Secretary General Juan Carlos Salazar highlighted governments' aspirational goals for air transport decarbonization by 2050, emphasizing initiatives to accelerate the development and implementation of technologies, operational improvements, and cleaner aviation fuels. Despite risks, including those related to international air transport, ICAO's analysis for 2023 indicates a near-complete recovery of passenger air traffic, reaching around 95 percent of pre-pandemic levels globally. Major regional routes exceeding 2019 levels by 2023 include Intra-Europe and routes between Europe, North America, the Middle East, and Africa. However, most international Asian routes, except those serving South West Asia, still experienced lower traffic levels compared to pre-pandemic times. Cargo traffic in 2023 remained 3 percent below 2019 levels, reflecting global economic conditions. Despite challenges like high fuel prices, airlines achieved total operating profits of USD 39 billion in 2023, similar to 2019 levels, attributed to increased passenger yields and productivity gains, with North American and European airlines leading in profitability.
ICAO produces a Monthly Monitor that provides aviation stakeholders with access to comprehensive snapshots and in-depth analysis of economic and aviation indicators, empowering them with actionable insights to navigate the complexities of the aviation landscape. Through monthly updates and customisable features, the Monthly Monitor allows stakeholders to stay up-to-date on data that facilitates informed decision-making and strategic planning.
News Source: Emirates News Agency
